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Ny artikel av Horst Feldmann i Social Indicators Research (open access)

Using data on 48 countries, this paper finds that people in economically freer countries care more about education. This is probably mainly because economic freedom enables them and their children to achieve higher returns to education. The magnitude of the estimated effect is substantial. The paper combines individual-level data from the World Values Survey with country-level data on economic freedom and other relevant factors. It controls for all relevant characteristics of survey respondents as well as for potentially confounding country-level characteristics. It also addresses potential endogeneity of economic freedom.

Min kollega i Lund Thomas Hofmarcher har undersökt hur längre grundskola påverkar graden av fattigdom, med flera olika fattigdomsmått och utbildningsreformer som källa till variation. Resultaten är intressanta:

I find economically large poverty-reducing effects of education that are larger than the pure correlation would suggest, relying on 37 compulsory schooling reforms across 23 countries in my preferred specification. An additional year of education leads to a relative reduction of living in poverty and social exclusion of about 29%.

Huvudreultatet rör relativ fattigdom, men det finns även effekt på absoluta mått:

In addition to reducing the likelihood of relative income poverty, education also reduces the likelihood of lacking basic necessities in the household, and living in a household with weak labor market attachment.

En lustig detalj är att resultatet är högst relevant för EUs 2020-strategi eftersom många länder fortfarande inte har obligatoriskt gymnasium. Ur conclusions:

Taking as an example the Europe 2020 strategy with its aim to reduce rates of poverty and social exclusion from 23% in 2008 to 19% in 2020, the potential contribution of increasing educational attainment is considerable. The magnitude of the main estimate for poverty and social exclusion in this paper (10 pp) cannot be viewed as an effect across the entire population given its LATE nature. It points however to large gains among the lower-educated part of the population, who might benefit from additional years of education. Compulsory attendance of upper secondary education or compulsory vocational training after completion of lower secondary education are measures that could be taken and that most European countries have not yet introduced.

Nu är frågan: Om EU tvingar alla medlemsländer att införa obligatoriskt gymnasium, hur säkra kan vi vara på att effekten blir fattigdomsreducerande även då?

Källa: Thomas Hofmarcher, "The Effect of Education on Poverty: A European Perspective" Lund University, Department of Economics Working Paper No 2019:9: